Assessing Long-term Impacts of Disaster Using Predictive Data Analytics for Effective Decision Support

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shailendra Kumar Mishra


Disaster is a big issue that seriously disrupts and affects the community or society. The impact of a disaster causes a short and long period of time. To analyze the impacts of disasters there are lots of available related datasets.  Data analytics methods have the potential to assess the impacts of different types of disasters. Collectively data analytics and machine learning techniques play an important role in transforming and being able to make decisions about our social, economic, mental, and psychological things. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of disasters from immediate term to long-term, provide crucial help to the emergency management workforce, and policy decisions making based on the latest available datasets.  With the help of the various data agencies, extraction of information and activities carried out, we can determine the effects on disaster victims, their community and impacts on society in general. The analysis provides the statistics that can guide our emergency service about the status of facilities that can further support the survivors, and other related information. Detailed assessment i.e., structural survey and hazard mapping provide specific information about reconstruction and mitigation to monitor the situation, needs of the victims, and supporting entities. The assessment is based on the type of disaster that happened and its impact after a few years.

In the current technological advancement of data analytics and machine learning algorithms, the prediction of the long-term effects of a disaster can be performed. Analyzing the impacts over a long period of time is also dependent on the growth of actively cared datasets gathering bodies like agencies, government, NGOs, media, etc., where prediction of short-term and long-term impacts is dependent on the available datasets. Available datasets are preprocessed using data analytics tools and implementation of training and testing for the purpose of predictions and recommendations. As a huge amount of data sets are available through different sources the classification of the datasets can also be performed resulting fast and accurate processing. Model validation techniques play an important role to check the validation, test result, and related outcomes. In this paper advanced machine learning and data analytics tools i.e., XG boost, modified SVM, and modified RF are used for better prediction. The analysis of the short-term effects of disasters has already been suggested and recommended by the various conventional approaches. Here the focus is to analyze and detect the long-term effects of a disaster along with recommendations and models preparing for good decision-making. Therefore, planning should be focused on assessing the impacts from short-term to long-term. The findings of the paper would be helpful to the agencies, local & national authorities, and the government by recommending action plans and their future effects for a longer period in case of disaster.


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Author Biography

shailendra Kumar Mishra, Amity University Chhattisgarh, Raipur

Dept. of CSE, ASET, Amity University Chhattisgarh


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